upton-on-line
12th September 2004
In this edition
Paris celebrates the 60th anniversary of the French liberation
of Paris; the diplomatic triumphs and moral dilemmas of being
non-aligned; taking food seriously from a cultural point of
view; and excerpts from a recent paper on sustainable development (strictly
for policy wonks).
A summer of memories
August in Paris is always another place. As long as the heat is not
too suffocating (and this year it has been very moderate) Paris is
emptied of its high pressure inhabitants and left to curious tourists
from the provinces, the elderly and those like upton-on-line who savour
the emptiness and languor of a great but half-closed city. There are
times, especially in the early morning, when the calm is almost eerie.
In still, empty boulevards in which the first dry leaves are already
starting to collect around closed up news stands and abandoned bikes
chained to railings, the decades start to peel away. It is a short step
back to the 1940s.
Walking back across the city after a late and lengthy meal in an
unusually quiet brasserie, upton-on-line walked literally into the
mid-1940s - 25th August 1944 to be precise. Stepping out onto the quais
from the Place St Gervais near the Hôtel de Ville, after-dinner
promeneurs were confronted by an extraordinary collection of second
world war jeeps, trucks, tanks and assorted militaria. It was the dress
rehearsal for the 60th commemoration of the liberation of Paris the next
morning. And it was a rehearsal of dress in a very literal sense.
Everyone was togged up in uniforms and costumes of the era. With all the
precision that one expects of the wardrobe designers at the Opéra
Bastille, every single participant was impeccably dressed for his or her
role. Only the cell phone communications between drivers gave the game
away. Best of all were the splendid old Citroens carrying actors playing
the part of political intriguers weaving their way through the military
traffic.
The next day the whole thing was carried off in front of banks of
notables from the President downwards in between downpours which seemed
to do nothing to suppress the carefully choreographed street dancing and
official parties. Upton-on-line watched it all comfortably on
television. It was very much a day for the French.
As indeed was the liberation of Paris. The whole thing took about a
week starting with a civil up-rising on 18th August and finishing with de
Gaulle's brilliantly calculated procession down the Champs-Elysées.
It was, as these things go, scarcely a battle to the last man. A total
of 1,483 Parisians lost their lives (the Germans lost about double
that). A realistic General von Choltitz ignored Hitler's orders
to raze the city. It was about as civilised as one could have hoped.
And saturated in politics from start to finish. Because the political
under-currents between resistants of various factions meant that de
Gaulle was acutely aware that communists had a rather different idea of
France than he did.
From the instant he set foot in Paris, de Gaulle was in myth-making
mode - for it is in durable myths that nations reinvent themselves. You
wouldn't known from his declarations that there were any allied forces
in the game. Every French newspaper must have reproduced his declaration
of sixty years earlier before the town hall: "Paris! Paris
insulted! Paris broken! Paris martyred! But Paris freed! Freed by
herself, freed by her people, with the collaboration of the armies of
France, with the support and collaboration of France herself, of the
France which fights, the sole France, the real France, eternal
France..."
As noted, it was a wholly French affair. There can be no doubting de
Gaulle's superb theatrical grasp of the situation. Minutes after
addressing the crowd he entered Notre Dame for a grand thanksgiving
service. Shots rang out causing widespread panic in the enormous crowd.
Imperturbable, de Gaulle continued intoning the Magnificat. Great
men don't duck and legends need heroes. France had so much to forget by
1944. De Gaulle and the Free French provided the perfect release from a
ghastly chapter in the history of a country that lives and re-lives its
history like New Zealand lives and re-lives its sporting moments.
New role models 60 years on
There can be no doubt that de Gaulle enabled the French to believe
that honour survived the dark days of the occupation and that France
should still be accorded a place of honour in the councils of the world.
He lies, today, in sight of the enormous Cross of Lorraine erected to
his memory on a hilltop at Collombey-les-Deux Eglises in the rolling
rural vastness of north-east France. One wonders what this singular man
would make of France's place in the world today. A recent pronouncement
by Alain Minc, chairman of the Conseil de Surveillance at Le
Monde newspaper puts the question in a particularly sharpened form.
In Minc's view, Jacques Chirac has taken it upon himself to
become the successor to Nasser and Nehru as leader of the
non-aligned nations of the world. (Le Figaro Magazine, 4th
September, page 53). Has it really come to this?
De Gaulle was determined that France should not become a supplicant
to American global power. He presided over the creation of French
military independence. But he would surely have turned in his grave if
anyone had described him as being a natural co-traveller with Nasser. In
Minc's view, taking France right out of any alliances and making it the
leader of a new non-aligned bloc isn't completely absurd but, as he
says, it doesn't stack up if France wants at the same time to play a key
role in Europe. Minc has also uttered for the first time (to
upton-on-line's memory) the other great geo-political truth that the
French establishment finds so hard to swallow: "Too often
neglected, Spain ... with her strong identity and 400 million Spanish
speakers in North and South America, constitutes the true European world
power". (It goes without saying that Britain, on this analysis,
does not count as being European...)
So if Minc is right, what has Chirac's non-alignment done for French
diplomacy? This has become a fascinating question in the light of the
abduction of two prominent French journalists by an extremist faction in
Iraq. Not since arriving here four years ago has upton-on-line witnessed
such a closing of ranks. When the hostage's captors demanded that France
abandon its law making it illegal to wear Islamic veils in schools, they
could scarcely have forseen the massive counter reaction that saw even
strenuous opponents of the new rule fall into line. Timed to coincide
with the commencement of a new school year that was shaping up to be
pretty tense, the hostage-taking swiftly put every Islamic group in
France on the spot - and without exception they backed the State ahead
of the fundamentalists. If the Iraqi Islamists thought they were going
to the aid of their embattled co-religionists that couldn't have got it
more wrong as French Muslim leaders descended on Baghdad to help secure
their release.
Calling in diplomatic credits
Heart-warming as this was for a country wanting to be reassured of
its essential unity, it couldn't of itself secure the release of the
hostages. To secure this end, France has mobilised incredible diplomatic
and intelligence resources. At the time this edition went to press, the
hostages - despite tantalisingly hopeful signs - had still not been
released. But neither were they dead - a fact owed almost certainly to
the extraordinary credits France was able to call in throughout the
Middle East. Ministers and diplomats have left no stone unturned in
every conceivable capital likely to have links with religious figures in
Iraq.
France is one of the few countries with the skills and resources even
to have attempted this. France has serious depth when it comes to
interpreting the Arab world - the quality of academic and official
commentary is testament to that. No other western country could
have persuaded Iraqi religious leaders to issue a fatwa
commanding the prisoners' release. So it comes as no surprise that
the reception received by French emissaries has been overwhelmingly
flattering. And the sub-text of every diplomatically phrased comment is
that it is shocking that the citizens of a country that so strenuously
opposed the war in Iraq should be kidnapped.
French authorities must be hugely heartened that their diplomatic
stakes in the region are so high. If there is a western country about
whom Middle Eastern leaders can be guiltlessly enthusiastic it is
France. It goes without saying that from the point of view of Middle
Eastern governments and religious leaders there is much at stake. If the
hostages should suffer the same fate as American or Italian hostages,
their sheer powerlessness will be nakedly revealed. And here surely lies
a problem Paris may yet have to confront. That the world is embroiled in
a turmoil which doesn't distinguish between the aligned and the
non-aligned. In which case, where has the non-alignment Minc speaks of
taken France?
On the other hand, should the hostages be released because they are
French, what special brand of morality does that suggest? Are
human beings legitimate targets for terror depending on whether or not
their countries of origin have aligned themselves this way or that? No
feeling person could wish for anything other than the immediate release
of these men whose families must be going through agony. But the awful
truth is that whatever the outcome, there will be deeply worrying
diplomatic and moral consequences to deal with. While America and her
allies are having to walk barefoot over all the glass they have broken,
France's apparently gilded reputation also has a leaden lining.
Not so cordial
In the centennial year of the Anglo-French Entente Cordiale it
is all supposed to be sweetness and light on both sides of the channel.
But in French eyes, the British press is not playing ball. The Times
had the affrontery to point out that Mr Chirac had not actually attacked
the kidnappers. And The Daily Telegraph was insensitive
enough to suggest that "opposition to the war [in Iraq] provides no
immunity to Islamic terrorism." This is just not cricket - or
petanque or anything else. Le Figaro was moved to catalogue
the list of French citizens killed in recent years long before the Iraq
fiasco (most recently 11 French naval engineers killed in Karachi in
2002), in expressing indignation that The Daily Telegraph could
go so low as to claim that Paris has been "suspected, in the past,
of securing the release of French hostages by paying ransoms." That
was one too much for a nation with an impregnable historical memory:
"Exactly," thundered Figaro, "just like in 1360
for example, to obtain the release of King Jean le Bon by paying
3000 gold ducats to ... England!"
Bringing up the next generation of foodies
Upton-on-line has long wondered how France manages to maintain a
cultural affinity for food. In most fields, modernity (these days
defined as ultra-liberalisme) seems to be more or less
effectively corroding all sorts of aspects of the the great French
cultural exception. The belief that the laws of economics worked
differently in the hexagone has taken a battering with the
debacle of the 35 hour week; the assumed French leadership of the EU
took a knock when all the French candidate for the Commission could
carry off was the transport portfolio; the box office for French films
is dismally shy of the American competition. All of this makes the
dawning of the twenty first century a distinctly less Frankish event
than the dawn of the last one. But somehow food remains a field in which
the French - with some justification - feel completely unchallenged.
Even McDonalds has felt compelled to Gallicise its offerings
rather than insist on a single global standard of culinary awfulness.
Upton-on-line can now reveal that this is no accident. It is all part
of a meticulously executed State plan that targets every Primary School
tummy. In retrospect it comes as no surprise. Little Uptons had been
heard to express excessively well-developed views on things like cheeses
on expeditions to the market, but this was brushed off as a precocious
appearance of the pickiness that accompanies advancing years. Only at
the beginning of the new school year was the plot revealed - a glossy
pamphlet provided by the local Town Hall detailing the complete
lunchtime menus for the first eight weeks of the term.
Carefully laid out were scores of mouthwatering creations for little
palates in the minutest detail - hors d'oeuvre, main course,
accompanying garniture, cheese course and dessert. How do these sound as
mains - Filet de hoki au beurre citron, Tagliatelles au saumon
gratinées or Parmentier de boeuf au cacao? Or what about the
old dessert classics like Poire Belle-Hélène or Crème
anglaises with Pépites de chocolat and gateau sec au chocolat? And
the daily cheese offerings are a veritable tour de France.
Needless to say, nothing approaching this sophistication has ever
come home in respect of any other school activity. There is no sports
calendar (because there's virtually no sport). Other school
announcements, few and far between, rarely rate more than a xeroxed
scrap. But the menu borders on being a calendar of religious
observances. Ostentatious signs of religious allegiance are not
permitted. But solemnly marking the liturgies of the tummy is a matter
of the highest importance. And in this, the State knows it is absolutely
safe since similar attention is being lavished on the same rituals at
home.
But as with all high art forms, nothing must be done to excess - the
yin and yang of equilibrium and poise applies as much to the alimentary
canal as it does to the new art galleries that continue to rise along
the Seine. So the dietary seers at the Town Hall have also included a
column devoted to Suggestions du Soir. If lunchtime in the school
canteen displays the splendours of roast thigh of best French farmyard
chicken, that could imply a light feta and cucumber salad for supper
whereas a simple steak might call for a more elaborate Galette au
sarrazin garnie aux épinards et saumon (as one dreamy date in
October envisages).
Frivolous? It's all a question of priorities. For the French it is
inconceivable that anyone would not take this extremely seriously.
Judging by the loving attention that the little Uptons have been paying
to the menu chart, they've struck a vein of French culture that appears
to be effortlessly exportable.
The sustainability of sustainable development
This week in Zurich, Upton-on-line is presenting a paper at the
inaugural Holcim Forum - a symposium for engineers, architects and
construction industry people put together by the Holcim Foundation.
This bodly, established to advance the cause of sustainable construction
has been created by Holcim, one of the world's biggest cement companies.
Somewhat rashly the organisers asked the chairman of the Round Table on
Sustainable Development at the OECD to provide an over-view of the
international policy environment. What follows are some extracts from
the address which will shortly appear on the arcadia website -
www.arcadia.co.nz
Upton-on-line's verdict on the twelve years since Rio is less than
flattering:
"Any honest assessment of whether, in the 12 years since Rio,
the world economy has embarked on the sort of sustainable global
development path many hoped for, would have to be that it has not. One
popular explanation for this is what is claimed to be a ‘lack of
political will’. You will hear this phrase in many international fora.
But this seems to me facile. Better explanations might be that leaders
either didn’t know what they were signing up to or, more cynically,
that they never intended to deliver.
I prefer the first explanation. I think the world embraced a concept
that it only poorly understood and then allowed it to be elaborated in
ways that assumed agreement where there wasn’t any. Over and over
again we have witnessed verbal consensus where there were real
differences or, more importantly, insufficient hard information to
operationalise concepts that were often nebulous."
So what is the way forward for those who have embraced the cause? A
much longer extract follows:
"To my mind the public policy agenda should be re-cast in a more
modest, pared down version that is compatible with the sort of human and
institutional limitations that politicians and citizens with limited
resources and, frankly, limited attention spans can realistically be
asked to embrace.
In the first place, policy makers should avoid versions of
sustainability that represent themselves as ethically-imperious theories
of everything. This is contested terrain where what we don’t know is
almost certainly more significant than what we do know. Paradigms that
seek to enfold everything take on a quasi-religious status that simply
will not command widespread engagement or support debate and
disagreement, the essential raw material for problem solving.
Secondly, they should return to that original Rio compromise –
avoiding irreversible environmental degradation that would be to our
long-run cost while allowing for a path out of poverty in the developing
countries of the world. (The ‘modesty’ of that agenda is, by the
way, strictly relative!) We need to deal with four factors: ignorance,
time, a reluctance to make difficult trade-offs and a system of
international treaties that is not equal to some of the challenges
globalisation poses. Let me deal briefly with each in turn.
Ignorance is in some ways the easiest problem to describe. We know
the extent of the changes we have made to the concentration of
atmospheric gases responsible for trapping incoming solar radiation and
the likely impact on tropospheric temperatures ; we know that human
activity is now controlling or interfering with 25-40% of the planet’s
photosynthetic output ; we know that we have doubled the global
terrestrial fixation of nitrogen from the atmosphere and tripled the
rate at which phosphorus is lost from soils to watercourses (and
ultimately finding its way into the oceans) .
These are significant interferences in the bio-geochemical cycles
that have over time created the sort of biosphere we are familiar with.
What we don’t know is the likely consequence of this scale of
interference or (as seems inevitable) the consequences of even larger
interferences. The sheer complexity of these cycles – and the paucity
of available data in some respects – means that we cannot say with any
confidence what sort of feedbacks might cause sudden, unexpected changes
in the sort of world we expect to be living in. These feedbacks might
not necessarily all be negative. We just don’t know.
Remaining resolutely focussed on improving our scientific
understanding is essential. The biosphere is – and always has been –
in a state of constant change. Human pressures are adding to those
changes. We need to understand better the changing, dynamic nature of
the biosphere and, given its complexity, be cautious about rash verdicts
either of impending doom or Pollyanna-ish complacency. As Professor
Vaclav Smil reminds us:
“What we need is not more clever arguing, and what we cannot get,
given the inherent complexities of biospheric transformations and major
uncertainties concerning their outcomes, is a confident, albeit
probabilistic, appraisal of our prospects.”
Take loss of biodiversity as an illustration of flying blind. While
there is huge debate over the number of species and the natural or
‘background’ rate of species extinction, there seems little doubt
that we have increased that rate by as much as an order of magnitude. In
the process we are getting rid of species we haven’t described and
whose importance for eco-system functioning and/or potential human value
are unknown. The implicit choice that is being made is between the
conservation of potential ‘knowledge’ embodied in living things
versus the creation of new ‘knowledge’ through the on-going
substitution of natural for human capital. What we don’t know is
whether we’re losing something of much greater long-term value than
what we’re gaining.
Ignorance of the human world is no less concerning although
potentially more tractable. Certainly, if we are talking about what we
need to do to meet basic developmental goals, we don’t need large
amounts of additional information to know where the priority issues
reside. The analysis of global health priorities, for instance,
presented by the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health provides a more
than adequate ‘ball-park’ idea of what governments would need to do
to tackle the major causes of morbidity and early mortality. But a
similar level of prioritising is lacking from some of the other
development goals governments say they take seriously.
What about time? It’s something all of us are short of and much
attention has been lavished on trying to forecast the timescales within
which actions must be taken to avert this or that crisis. There are two
problems here.
One is that our forecasting abilities are woefully inadequate for the
complex human responses we are trying to guess. Even something as
apparently quantifiable as the dynamics of population growth remains
shrouded in conjecture. As a distinguished demographer, Joel Cohen,
has remarked, “the demographic future has none of the inevitability
that population projections convey …[because] … no one knows what
people will choose to want.” If we can’t predict choices about
fertility, it should come as even less of a surprise that attempts to
forecast future energy demand (a key determinant of the time we may or
may not have to head off serious climatic risks) are almost doomed at
the outset. A recent survey of forecasting attempts over the last 100
years described the whole enterprise as “a manifest record of
failure”.
Yet we need to have some working hypotheses about what it is we are
trying to sustain over what time-frame and then be in a position to
monitor what actually happens because, as has been observed,
sustainability can only be assessed after the fact. Hence the importance
of constantly monitoring trends over time and being prepared to adapt to
those trends. (This is what the universal take up of the economic and
environmental accounts I spoke of earlier would help us to do.)
But there is a second sense in which time is not ‘on our side’
and that is the time it takes for both institutions and attitudes to
change. Look at the time it takes to try to stabilise dysfunctional
states. Look at the time it takes to mobilise even functional societies
to confront a challenge such as AIDS. I don’t intend to dwell on this
point but it does seem to me the single biggest challenge to those who
argue for urgent change, with little more than exhortations for
information and education.
I am unaware of any evidence to suggest that even democratic
societies (which one assumes tend to be the most information rich and
open to new ideas) are capable of sustaining radical policy changes
without the stimulus of a crisis. Is this so surprising? At the level of
individual agents, we know how difficult it is to persuade people to
modify their behaviour even when lifestyle risks they run are well
described and the risks of harm strongly predictable.
I don’t expect you to draw comfort from this assessment, but I can
see little to be gained by promoting policies that simply ignore the
time it takes for people to change their behaviour in the face of risks
that, in terms of human timescales, are relatively long term.
Next there is the question of trade-offs – both in a physical sense
and in a policy sense. One of the unfortunate trends in much writing
about sustainability has been a flirtation with the notion that there is
some lost equilibrium that must be re-captured. It is certainly valid to
point to the greatly-increased rate of change that human activity is
causing to the biosphere thereby possibly placing at us at risk of
feedbacks that occur on timescales to which our civilisation cannot
adapt. But it is misleading to suggest that there is some way we can
live that removes the need for constant adaptation.
Indeed there are intriguing possibilities that natural climate change
has actually been a driver for a succession of civilisational turning
points that have in turn been rendered fragile by successive changes.
Our civilisation is inextricably caught up in a dynamic process that has
always required change. With this is mind I must tell you that my
eyebrows were raised by one item on the Holcim Foundation’s website
under a picture of some cave drawings from Brazil. The caption claims
that that the cave dwellers of the Serra de Capìvera “lived in total
harmony with their environment. They are considered forerunners of a
balanced interaction between all nature’s forces.” Is this really
so? How do we know? They are not there today. Whatever happened to them
– be it climatic, biological or social – proves that their state of
‘total harmony’ was transient.
Civilisation as it has evolved since the last ice age has been based
on the transformation of natural capital (to revert to the language of
accounting I have already spoken of). We have chosen to transform
natural capital into physical and intellectual resources which we have
found more desirable (and in many cases necessary to secure our survival
in the face of an environment in which total harmony has eluded us).
That is going to continue. Amidst all the various scenarios of which I
am aware, none posits a world in which we achieve some equilibrium that
leaves the remaining unaltered elements of the biosphere in their
present state. Even the most optimistic scenarios envisage a widening
human ‘footprint’.
Take for example the most radical ‘sustainability first’ scenario
sketched in UNEP’s GEO-3 report published in 2002. This scenario (one
of four) is described as one in which
“a more visionary state of affairs prevails, where radical shifts
in the way people interact with one another and with the world around
them stimulate and support sustainable policy measures and accountable
corporate behaviour.”
In comparing the outcomes of the four scenarios the authors rightly
point out that many of the benefits of their ‘sustainability first
‘scenario would accrue beyond the period for which they modelled
results (to 2030). Notwithstanding that their results show large,
ongoing substitutions of natural capital. Atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 would still rise from 380 to 450 ppm, biodiversity is still under
threat across 56% of the land area.
The numbers here are less important than the trends. Very simply, a
future world even involving ‘radical’ changes in human interactions
will involve massive on-going change.
That means facing a future with, at the least, very significant
continuing trade-offs. And since a prudent acquaintance with human
nature suggests not using a ‘visionary’ or ‘radical’ state of
affairs as the baseline, the trade-offs are likely to be even more
significant. Last year’s World Energy Outlook forecast $16 trillion of
new investment in energy services, the overwhelming bulk of which was in
the fossil fuel sector.
Clearly there is no single sort of ‘sustainability’ or balance of
trade-offs we might aim for. It all depends on the choices everyone from
governments to individual consumers make. Different substitutions of
resources will degrade or enhance different stocks in different ways,
almost certainly unpredictably. If you look at the consumption trends of
rich societies – and even more so those of rapidly developing
societies – it is tempting to conclude that we’ve taken a collective
‘bet’ that high and rising levels of resource use bring with them
the technological capability to deal with any unforeseen problem. What
if we’re wrong?
On the other hand, to take – by means of stringent government
controls – a different bet, namely that we should radically constrain
resource use takes a different sort of a bet: that a radical change to
political and social expectations in many countries is sustainable and
that we have the institutional capabilities to deal with unforeseen
human problems!
My own view of the trade-offs is irrelevant. All I want to emphasise
is that there is no unique pathway to some ideal state. All we have are
messy trade-offs, none of them costless. I note that the Holcim
Foundation has soberly proposed that the benefits of its balancing of
economic, social and environmental goals must “outweigh the costs and
efforts made to achieve them”. Who could disagree with that? The
answer is potentially everyone, because we don’t have a standard
metric with which to weigh many of the benefits in particular.
Finally there is the issue of sorting out the jungle of treaties and
international initiatives that currently take the place of any coherent
global governance. I have already referred to the post-Rio flurry of
treaty writing that has lost momentum. A similar disillusionment has
followed from the experience of the Commission on Sustainable
Development. There simply is not enough human negotiating capacity in
rich countries to embark on the range of issues policy advisers find
themselves grappling with; imagine how overwhelming it must be for
poorer countries.
But there is also a degree of disconnect between the idea of global
environmental treaties and the way in which global trade rules have been
constructed. This is a fiendishly complex and controversial field. But
in simple terms, the laudable objective of fighting egregious subsidies
and trade barriers that stand in the way of development opportunities
for poor countries runs up against the equally laudable desire of
citizens to minimise the environmental impact of their consumption not
just locally, but globally. Little is gained if consumers in rich
countries raise their own environmental standards but impose an
increasingly destructive consumption ‘footprint’ far away where the
damage can only be seen by global monitoring satellites.
Developing countries are rightly concerned about green protectionism.
But developed world consumers are equally right to be concerned about
the environmental and social scars that may lie behind an apparently
harmless product on the supermarket shelves. Getting coherent ground
rules for a genuinely global economy that is environmentally sustainable
remains a key priority.
The scale of the issues I have outlined does not demand a grand
theory from policy makers. Rather, as I have argued, it demands modesty.
Sustainable development is a useful idea if we are prepared to focus on
the basics – the issues which, at any given time, promise the greatest
leverage in respect of the most pressing issues – and accept that
change will not be driven from the top down but be triggered by a
widespread understanding of the key priorities. This Forum’s focus on
‘basic needs’ is to my mind the right one. It is as applicable to
environmental pressures as it is to human needs.
In the world of policy those needs are better understood on the
social and developmental front than the environmental front. The
Millennium Development Goals command an increasingly broad consensus.
There will be no human security or environmental integrity in a world in
which there is widespread illiteracy, chronic sickness or short
life-expectancy owing to dysfunctional governance, degraded water
quality, and the absence of even basic sanitation services. The problems
are soluble but they will require trade-offs including fiscal ones that
run into many billions of euros.
Estimates of the sums involved can easily be assailed given the
frailties of the available data. But the direction of the cost-benefit
equation is unambiguous. By staying with these basic needs we know the
gains are potentially enormous. The fiscal trade-offs needed within rich
societies are pretty clear.
On the environmental side, the numbers may be less certain. It is one
thing to spell out goals for percentages of well-defined human
populations and estimate the financial resources that would need to be
marshalled. It is another to seek to aim to preserve particular levels
or elements of biodiversity when fewer than 2 million species have been
described and estimates of the total number ‘out there’ range from 5
million to 30 million or more.
This brings us back to the issue of making trade-offs in the face of
uncertainty. Basic needs, environmentally, are not about fine-tuning
some equilibrium but trying to get agreement on key vulnerabilities and
some provisional prudential limits that will avoid significant harm. Two
key issues requiring better definition and then active co-operation are
firstly, what components of the earth’s biodiversity are needed for
ecosystems to function in a way that will provide the ‘environmental
services’ on which the continuation of life relies; and secondly, what
level of green house gas accumulation in the atmosphere are we prepared
to nominate as being potentially dangerous.
Any answer to these questions will involve trade-offs which will
depend ultimately on the resilience and flexibility of human
institutions. Deciding not to address them will not remove the need for
trade-offs. It might simply mean we have fewer choices and less time to
adapt than would otherwise be available. Foundations like Holcim can
help by generating ever-more cost-effective ways of making scarce
developing economy resources go further while at the same time reducing
the environmental ‘footprint’ of the built environment. While I have
sketched some of the issues we need to know more about, you as practical
people don’t need to wait for precise answers before acting. As
leading companies know, eco-efficient solutions are good for business
and good for the environment."
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